Bad Monsoon Policies:

June 30/2014: Monsoon prospects for this year have not been encouraging, and the nation is faced with the spectre of a looming drought. For a country whose economy is largely rural and therefore dependent on agriculture, this for sure is bad news. It should worry not just  economy watchers but also the newly installed Narendra Modi government at the Centre.

The situation has arisen because of the El Nino effect – or warming of ocean water temperatures that periodically develops on the Pacific Ocean surface, which will have a bearing on the climatic conditions across the globe but more specifically on Asia. The fact is also that India faces a drought every fifth year, the last one being in 2009. We are heading fast into the next. The impact of a drought is mainly on agriculture and drinking water sources but it affects the economy at large in multiple ways. Our distorted statisticians say the share of agriculture in India’s GDP is less than 15 per cent. Yet, with over 50 per cent of the country’s manpower employed in the farm sector, the impact of a good or bad monsoon is felt instantaneously on our economy. Joblessness for such a large chunk of populace will be a grim scenario. If monsoon fails, agriculture fails; and in turn, industries will suffer by way of a shortfall in raw materials. Production of summer crops like oilseeds, cotton and sugarcane apart from rice will be seriously hit. About 30 per cent of the country’s manufacturing base is agriculture-products-oriented.

Together, the emerging scenario is bound to reduce the purchasing power of the people. Trade and businesses are set for a severe hit. All these will take its toll on the Indian industry which is already passing through a difficult phase. As trade and industry bodies would like us to believe, the past three years have been very difficult all round.

This new Modi government, assuming it has all the energy at its command, should strike a new path to face the upcoming grim scenario. It will be a test of its strength as to how it can cope with an adverse situation which is not a surprise but has been predicted since months. This will be a question of how to turn adversity into advantage. Old proverbial saying of ‘Where there is a will, there is a way’ may sound appropriate here. That it is possible to work and achieve results with the existing government machinery was amply proven during the time of the cyclone Phailin a year ago in Orissa. A resolute state government took courage and set a target of ‘zero casualty’ which by itself was a tall order considering the magnitude of the natural calamity that was staring point blank at the whole state. Rescue and relief operations were undertaken on a war footing. The result was that the government achieved the near impossible of not merely extremely low casualties but also minimal loss of property. What was humanely possible was done, though no one could stem the galloping tides or the floods that devastated the agricultural fields later on. The measures that the state government had taken turned out to be a model for use in the future during calamities.

When drought sets in, there is no way a government at the Centre or in the states can create water from thin air. But, the facilities at a government’s command can be organised and put to best use. For example, the Agricultural Extension Officers working at every Block in this country need fresh training to wisen up farmers on the vagaries of weather and how they should handle the situation. Our bureaucracy is known for its lapses. The average Indian farmer is very aware that weather forecasts do go wrong and so he is to be trained to accept mistakes while tuning in for a future where weather science will be able to help out.

For the Narendra Modi government at the Centre, here now is an opportunity to set in motion a programme to effectively tackle the impending drought situation and make sure minimum damage is caused to the nation and its people from its effects. It should start by organizing food stocks wherein it will have to plan and execute movement of internally available grains across the sub continent and also evolve a mechanism by which the flaws in the supply chain (PDS) are corrected. That should avoid famine. This country has witnessed scenarios of one agriculture product being available in plenty in one state while another state/s faced a severe shortage. This has been putting people in serious misery time and again. Steps have to be taken to come down heavy on hoarders. Fodder is another front that needs to be tackled. The farmers have to be protected from financial stress. Loans have to be taken care of and minimal grants may be a way out. Drinking water conservation techniques need immediate implementation along with the need to encourage multiple/alternative cropping patterns. The present scenario should make the government come up with a mechanism to address such matters which could remain as a blue print for future times. The people of this country are watching whether Mr Narendra Modi’s government is only interested in fast tracking environmental and other clearances for making life easy for large industrialists or it is also planning to fast track pro farmer and pro poor policies by being pro-active in times such as these.